There is a lie in Seth Klein’s aricle, and it is this: “ While we are already witnessing the death and destruction that comes with 1.5 degrees, a 2-degree world — which can still be prevented — will be that much worse…”
We cannot prevent a “2-degree world” at this point as the GHGs *already in the atmosphere* will ensure we race past that mark. And that is the essence of what Suzuki was saying.
Globally GHG levels are still rising! In order for us to reverse direction we would have to start taking massive amounts of GHGs OUT of the atmosphere—not “net zero” but “net -20%”. The tipping points we have passed will prevent that from happening.
Dr. James Hansen et al show that we've baked in at least +2.4°C, and we're still pushing past that with continued record GHG releases from human activity.
Not only that, but we've triggered natural system GHG sources that we do not and cannot control or reverse; eg, albedo crash, arctic ice coverage crash, permafrost melt, complete land-based ice melt [outside Antarctica, parts of Greenland, and perhaps a few upper Himilaya glaciers], and others.
Our likely CO2-eq stands at well above 600ppm and accelerating -- and that means no less than +4°C this century, so for children alive today. That's a civilizational crushing number.
Just Google "world map at +4°C and then ask AI what the implications are. Billions dead, billions more migrating, and the complete collapse of modern civilization.
That said, IF we were able to apply ALL possible human and technical efforts globally *now* to reverse, reduce, remediate, and reengineer our planetary civilization, ecology, and environment, then MAYBE, and only maybe, might we have a chance at human and 50% of species survival.
I agree Johnathan, and I am sceptical that our societies can come together to take the necessary action. It would take something spectacular to unify the world towards that goal—it is much more likely that water and food shortages will lead to conflict (India and Pakistan for example, but US vs Mexico vs Canada right behind it) that could escalate to a global war.
A few hundred thousand humans may survive in a flight to the poles??
I completely agree. Still, while I'm absolutely not a Pollyanna, I'm doing my best to help as many people as possible learn about our predicament, the likely consequences, and what we can and must do. Open to any and all sound ideas, suggestions, recommendations, and conversations. All the best, Jonathan
I am seriously gardening for the first time in my life (everything is an experiment this year as we are new to the east coast and learning). Plus, chickens. Electricity in this jurisdiction is mostly fossil fuel generated… in a few weeks we will be almost 100% solar with battery backup.
We moved from west coast to east coast partly for financial reasons and mostly for climate. We are connecting with our neighbours and doing what we can to prepare for what’s coming.
And I bring the climate emergency up at every opportunity. I am doing what I can, but the changes we need to make are at the global economy level.
Hi Johnathan I don’t think I can msg you until you follow back 😊. You can check out my Substack (it’s free!) and you can see some of my posts on the topic. I am due for an update on my garden lol.
There is a lie in Seth Klein’s aricle, and it is this: “ While we are already witnessing the death and destruction that comes with 1.5 degrees, a 2-degree world — which can still be prevented — will be that much worse…”
We cannot prevent a “2-degree world” at this point as the GHGs *already in the atmosphere* will ensure we race past that mark. And that is the essence of what Suzuki was saying.
Globally GHG levels are still rising! In order for us to reverse direction we would have to start taking massive amounts of GHGs OUT of the atmosphere—not “net zero” but “net -20%”. The tipping points we have passed will prevent that from happening.
Exactly. A 2°C world cannot be prevented.
Dr. James Hansen et al show that we've baked in at least +2.4°C, and we're still pushing past that with continued record GHG releases from human activity.
Not only that, but we've triggered natural system GHG sources that we do not and cannot control or reverse; eg, albedo crash, arctic ice coverage crash, permafrost melt, complete land-based ice melt [outside Antarctica, parts of Greenland, and perhaps a few upper Himilaya glaciers], and others.
Our likely CO2-eq stands at well above 600ppm and accelerating -- and that means no less than +4°C this century, so for children alive today. That's a civilizational crushing number.
Just Google "world map at +4°C and then ask AI what the implications are. Billions dead, billions more migrating, and the complete collapse of modern civilization.
That said, IF we were able to apply ALL possible human and technical efforts globally *now* to reverse, reduce, remediate, and reengineer our planetary civilization, ecology, and environment, then MAYBE, and only maybe, might we have a chance at human and 50% of species survival.
Your thoughts?
I agree Johnathan, and I am sceptical that our societies can come together to take the necessary action. It would take something spectacular to unify the world towards that goal—it is much more likely that water and food shortages will lead to conflict (India and Pakistan for example, but US vs Mexico vs Canada right behind it) that could escalate to a global war.
A few hundred thousand humans may survive in a flight to the poles??
I completely agree. Still, while I'm absolutely not a Pollyanna, I'm doing my best to help as many people as possible learn about our predicament, the likely consequences, and what we can and must do. Open to any and all sound ideas, suggestions, recommendations, and conversations. All the best, Jonathan
Oh for sure!
I am seriously gardening for the first time in my life (everything is an experiment this year as we are new to the east coast and learning). Plus, chickens. Electricity in this jurisdiction is mostly fossil fuel generated… in a few weeks we will be almost 100% solar with battery backup.
We moved from west coast to east coast partly for financial reasons and mostly for climate. We are connecting with our neighbours and doing what we can to prepare for what’s coming.
And I bring the climate emergency up at every opportunity. I am doing what I can, but the changes we need to make are at the global economy level.
Right on! If you want to share resources, please DM me and we can network on ideas, resources, thought leaders, etc. Cheers! Jonathan
Hi Johnathan I don’t think I can msg you until you follow back 😊. You can check out my Substack (it’s free!) and you can see some of my posts on the topic. I am due for an update on my garden lol.